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The Polish Leadership’s Warnings About Ukraine’s Potential Defeat Should Be Taken Seriously
There’s nobody more credible than the Polish leadership, apart from the American one of course, to decisively flip the “official narrative” from prematurely trumpeting Ukraine’s supposedly inevitable victory to direly warning about its supposedly inevitable defeat.
The “official narrative” about the Ukrainian Conflict up until this week was that Kiev would “inevitably win”, but that prediction has since suddenly been turned upside-down after the Polish Prime Minister and President both warned that it might actually soon face defeat. Mateusz Morawiecki said that “The defeat of Ukraine might become a prelude to World War III” during his trip to Berlin on Monday while Andrzej Duda outright questioned whether “Ukraine will survive or not” when in Davos on Thursday.
It would be absurd to speculate that either of them are so-called “Russian propagandists”, let alone both, since they’ve proven themselves to be among the world’s top Russophobes. Their country has done more than any other apart from the US to support Ukraine in NATO’s proxy war on Russia through that former Soviet Republic. In fact, it was Duda himself who unveiled the de facto Polish-Ukrainian Confederation during his trip to Kiev last May, so it’s clear that Warsaw really wants its neighbor to win.
These facts mean that there’s nobody more credible than the Polish leadership, apart from the American one of course, to decisively flip the “official narrative” from prematurely trumpeting Ukraine’s supposedly inevitable victory to direly warning about its supposedly inevitable defeat. As was explained at length in this analysis earlier in the week, Russia’s liberation of Soledar was actually a tactical military game-changer despite the Mainstream Media’s (MSM) prior gaslighting to the contrary.
It was that development, after all, which set into motion the irreversible rewriting of the MSM’s “official narrative” about the conflict. CNN even jumped on the bandwagon in an attempt to lead the way on Wednesday when one of its top perception managers, Stephen Collinson, warned that “a vital new tipping point” has been reached that’ll put the Biden Administration’s commitment to Ukraine to the test. Duda simply took everything to its logical end by explicitly wondering whether Ukraine will survive.
While those three – the Polish President, Prime Minister, and CNN – undoubtedly dramatized the present state of military-strategic affairs for political reasons, their warnings should nevertheless be taken seriously since it’s truly the case that Kiev is on the brink of defeat. The only way to avert this scenario is if unprecedented aid like modern tanks is shipped to it as soon as possible and/or if Kiev launches a new offensive, the first of which is politically risky while the second is militarily risky.
In the absence of either happening, and provided that Russia doesn’t inexplicably go back on its pledge to carry on its counteroffensive by engaging in another “goodwill gesture”, then the Battle of Donbass will almost certainly end with Kiev’s defeat. The consequences of that outcome would most directly affect Poland, which is in a de facto confederation with Ukraine like was earlier mentioned and already gave its neighbor a whopping 260 of its own T-72 tanks like Duda just admitted in Davos.
It would therefore be an epic embarrassment for the Polish leadership if Kiev loses the Battle of Donbass since this would be akin to a defeat for Warsaw itself due to how much it’s already militarily and politically invested in what it previously predicted up until this week was Ukraine’s “inevitable victory”. Unless Poland intervened in Western Ukraine right afterwards so as to “save face”, which would entail considerable military and political risks, then the ruling party might lose re-election this fall.
The ”Law & Justice” (PiS per its Polish acronym) party wouldn’t have any remaining credibility in the eyes of its (faux) conservative base and so-called “moderates” alike, the latter of which have rallied around it on an artificially “patriotic” pretext due to its support of mass Ukrainian immigration. Poland as a whole would appear toothless after talking so tough all last year about doing its utmost to help Ukraine win, which would shatter its envisioned regional “sphere of influence”.
The US-led West’s Golden Billion of which it’s a part would almost certainly also look for a scapegoat to blame Kiev’s defeat on, with PiS being the most attractive target since it doesn’t hew to this de facto New Cold War bloc’s liberal-globalist ideology as closely as most of its other members do. Germany would therefore be expected to resume its Hybrid War on Poland in partnership with its recently restored American overlord to manipulate voters into kicking PiS out of power during fall’s elections.
Should those two succeed in that superficially “democratic” regime change plot against their shared nominal Polish partner, then Chancellor Olaf Scholz would make tangible progress in advancing the hegemonic ambitions contained in last month’s manifesto. The installation of a bonafide pro-German liberal-globalist government in Warsaw would result in Poland becoming Berlin’s largest-ever proxy state, which would in turn imbue the EU’s de facto leader with truly hegemonic sway in Europe.
Morawiecki and Duda are both keenly aware that their political careers are about to be ruined if they can’t convince their Western partners to scale up their support for Ukraine at this crucial moment in Russia’s special operation there. These self-interested motivations explain why they rewrote the “official narrative” about the conflict in order for it to more closely align with the facts, though it remains unclear whether the West will react as they demand to help Kiev survive and thus keep those two in power.