Any future Afghanistan and Iraq will be a lot costlier thanks to drones. That changed dynamics completely. I think it is the main miscalculation on the Russian part too, nobody had predicted the magnitude and influence of drones. Now everybody knows.
Just imagine the USA occupation of Afghanistan where taliban instead of home made explosive devices had drones. Unsustainable. This is why I donтАЩt think they have the conventional power any more (not that it does not exist, just that drones require orders of magnitude more personnel, technology, and any occupation would take orders of magnitude higher losses.
Surely there were miscalculations on all sides. IтАЩm convinced that the west was left in shock when they realized Russia is not going to fall apart from within. That was their big miscalculation.
What is going on now, IMO is finding ways for killing more Russians and inflicting as much of material damage as possible before inevitable end of the war.
To nato, dead Russians are also a success.
And a digression: an analyst (bmanalysis) made a point which made sense to me. At the beginning of smo there was a realistic chance of Ukraine peace and then fast slide under Russian influence (there is still a chance for that in the future). To nato, Ukrainians are potential Russian soldiers, so to them dead Ukrainians are almost as good as dead Russians. NATO at this point wants to reap the situation and kill as many people to reduce future adversaries potential.
I think the Weat clearly miscalculated. And they've painted themselves into a corner that they cannot get out of, but through a general war.
The difference is that Western resources and soft power allow them to make mistakes with no consequences. Too many people still think that the West are the Good Guys, in spite of abundant evidence to the contrary.
Russia doesn't have this luxury. Ot fair? Nope. But that's the way it is. Which also makes Russian soft pedaling especially foolish.
I strongly believe that USA has already made a decision of nuking Iran, they are just waiting for an opportunity.
USA using nuke is necessary for it as it can no longer project conventional power and it must instil fear to hold on to its supremacy.
I am not sure about the conventional power trope, much as I may wish otherwise.
Any future Afghanistan and Iraq will be a lot costlier thanks to drones. That changed dynamics completely. I think it is the main miscalculation on the Russian part too, nobody had predicted the magnitude and influence of drones. Now everybody knows.
Just imagine the USA occupation of Afghanistan where taliban instead of home made explosive devices had drones. Unsustainable. This is why I donтАЩt think they have the conventional power any more (not that it does not exist, just that drones require orders of magnitude more personnel, technology, and any occupation would take orders of magnitude higher losses.
Russia has made miscalculation after miscalculation, much as I may wish otherwise.
Surely there were miscalculations on all sides. IтАЩm convinced that the west was left in shock when they realized Russia is not going to fall apart from within. That was their big miscalculation.
What is going on now, IMO is finding ways for killing more Russians and inflicting as much of material damage as possible before inevitable end of the war.
To nato, dead Russians are also a success.
And a digression: an analyst (bmanalysis) made a point which made sense to me. At the beginning of smo there was a realistic chance of Ukraine peace and then fast slide under Russian influence (there is still a chance for that in the future). To nato, Ukrainians are potential Russian soldiers, so to them dead Ukrainians are almost as good as dead Russians. NATO at this point wants to reap the situation and kill as many people to reduce future adversaries potential.
I think the Weat clearly miscalculated. And they've painted themselves into a corner that they cannot get out of, but through a general war.
The difference is that Western resources and soft power allow them to make mistakes with no consequences. Too many people still think that the West are the Good Guys, in spite of abundant evidence to the contrary.
Russia doesn't have this luxury. Ot fair? Nope. But that's the way it is. Which also makes Russian soft pedaling especially foolish.