The sequence of events that would have to transpire in order to turn this into a reality are that: the next NATO leader and his team end up being hawkish on this issue; Polish policymakers overcome their differences and agree that it’s worth the risks; and the US gives them the greenlight.
Any time you read that an escalation is "under consideration", the decision has already been made and the escalation begun. Any "debate" is for public consumption.
I understand your point and generally agree in principle, but in this case, I'm not so sure. Early on I thought it was more likely to happen than less, but now it's the inverse, at least until Rutte comes in and we get to see what his team is like. There are also those domestic American political variables to consider too that I mentioned at the end, which can go either way.
I think Poland's rhetoric is a little bit like Modi's diplomatic effort for a cease-fire in Ukraine: it is a nice posture on the red carpet for domestic audience while there is little real risk. Modi can claim Ukraine position is intransigent, and Poland can claim NATO does not approve that. Even if USA gives approval and sends AWACS flying inside Polish border, there is virtually no chance for Polish fighters to shoot down hypersonic missiles, and only a small chance to shoot down short-range ballistic missiles or low-flying cruise missiles. And Polish jets flying into Ukraine to operate, R-37 may shoot them down. The knob of how much to escalate is controlled by Russia while the entire Polish airforce can not do much for Ukraine even if they fly into Ukraine to shoot down missiles.
Any time you read that an escalation is "under consideration", the decision has already been made and the escalation begun. Any "debate" is for public consumption.
I understand your point and generally agree in principle, but in this case, I'm not so sure. Early on I thought it was more likely to happen than less, but now it's the inverse, at least until Rutte comes in and we get to see what his team is like. There are also those domestic American political variables to consider too that I mentioned at the end, which can go either way.
Definitely U.S. political considerations are at play here, at least until November, after which the point will be moot.
Escalation may be a card to be played, in the event that Ukraine gets wobbly before the U.S. elections.
I note that Russia is testing Poland's resolve with missile attacks on Lviv.
The Ukraine have had little luck taking down these missiles with their Western weapons, good luck to Poland in trying same.
You know what they say about the definition of a Moron.
I think Poland's rhetoric is a little bit like Modi's diplomatic effort for a cease-fire in Ukraine: it is a nice posture on the red carpet for domestic audience while there is little real risk. Modi can claim Ukraine position is intransigent, and Poland can claim NATO does not approve that. Even if USA gives approval and sends AWACS flying inside Polish border, there is virtually no chance for Polish fighters to shoot down hypersonic missiles, and only a small chance to shoot down short-range ballistic missiles or low-flying cruise missiles. And Polish jets flying into Ukraine to operate, R-37 may shoot them down. The knob of how much to escalate is controlled by Russia while the entire Polish airforce can not do much for Ukraine even if they fly into Ukraine to shoot down missiles.