Zelensky is clearly preparing his people for a ceasefire, but he’s also talking about security guarantees from NATO and his country’s alleged production of its weapon systems, both of which will rankle Russia.
"...President Putin[...] stands to “lose face”..."
It's not, nor has it ever been, a question of 'losing' or 'saving face'; it's a question of national security, and in this case it is existential.
Also, it's not about 'President Putin'. It's about Russia.
"...which will rankle Russia."
It's not a question of 'being rankled'; it's an existential question.
"...unless something serious happens to derail this trajectory."
Well, let's hope it does because if it doesn't, NATO wins: this was their objective — to find a means to 'weaken Russia'. What could work better for them than hamstringing the country into an Israeli-Palestinian-type situation? You can rest assured they would finance and otherwise actively support insurgency to an extent which would be the same as putting the boot on the other foot in Israel/Palestine. If 'Putin' (for want of a better word) allows this, the 'West' (which is also a poorly lacking description) will have 'won'.
I still think a ceasefire a la Korea is the most realistic scenario. Both sides would compromise on their maximalist objectives in this conflict while still having achieved some significant goals.
Russia has been unable to interdict most Western weapons and I don't think that's going to change after 18 months of precedent thus far.
Ukraine's de-militarization will therefore likely remain incomplete despite me and others wishing for it to be carried out in full.
Finally Zelensky says something that makes sense. I have since the thing began just wanted the killing to stop, knowing that Ukraine is not really wanted in NATO. Zelensky may or may not know that but he is talking as if he does; talking about other types of security guarantees. Just as long as they don't involve any NATO troops fighting Russian ones.
I would be happy with an armistice at the current battle lines. No more shooting and bombing. And of course with the war technically not resolved (like Korea) Ukraine does not qualify for NATO membership.
"...President Putin[...] stands to “lose face”..."
It's not, nor has it ever been, a question of 'losing' or 'saving face'; it's a question of national security, and in this case it is existential.
Also, it's not about 'President Putin'. It's about Russia.
"...which will rankle Russia."
It's not a question of 'being rankled'; it's an existential question.
"...unless something serious happens to derail this trajectory."
Well, let's hope it does because if it doesn't, NATO wins: this was their objective — to find a means to 'weaken Russia'. What could work better for them than hamstringing the country into an Israeli-Palestinian-type situation? You can rest assured they would finance and otherwise actively support insurgency to an extent which would be the same as putting the boot on the other foot in Israel/Palestine. If 'Putin' (for want of a better word) allows this, the 'West' (which is also a poorly lacking description) will have 'won'.
I still think a ceasefire a la Korea is the most realistic scenario. Both sides would compromise on their maximalist objectives in this conflict while still having achieved some significant goals.
Russia has been unable to interdict most Western weapons and I don't think that's going to change after 18 months of precedent thus far.
Ukraine's de-militarization will therefore likely remain incomplete despite me and others wishing for it to be carried out in full.
"...de-militarization will therefore likely remain incomplete..."
That's unfortunate.
Надежда умерает последнеей.
Finally Zelensky says something that makes sense. I have since the thing began just wanted the killing to stop, knowing that Ukraine is not really wanted in NATO. Zelensky may or may not know that but he is talking as if he does; talking about other types of security guarantees. Just as long as they don't involve any NATO troops fighting Russian ones.
I would be happy with an armistice at the current battle lines. No more shooting and bombing. And of course with the war technically not resolved (like Korea) Ukraine does not qualify for NATO membership.