Analyzing Pakistan’s Decision To Begin Building A Decade-Delayed Pipeline With Iran

Observers shouldn’t interpret this move as a blatant act of defiance against the country’s traditional American partner, however, but rather as a pragmatic means to avoid having Iran take Pakistan to the International Arbitration Court upon the expiry of its deadline to begin construction on this project.

Pakistan’s Cabinet Committee on Energy approved September’s recommendation from the Ministerial Oversight Committee to begin building 80 kilometers of its part of this decade-delayed gas pipeline with Iran from the border up until the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s (CPEC) terminal port of Gwadar. This decision came as a surprise for many after Pakistan’s powerful military and intelligence services (The Establishment) once again installed a Western-friendly government in the aftermath of unfree elections.

Observers shouldn’t interpret this move as a blatant act of defiance against the country’s traditional American partner, however, but rather as a pragmatic means to avoid having Iran take Pakistan to the International Arbitration Court upon the expiry of its deadline to begin construction on this project. It was recently extended another six months until September 2024 as a goodwill gesture to salvage their decade-old initiative that was impeded by US sanctions pressure up until this point.

Pakistan would have faced a $18 billion fine that could have forced it into bankruptcy given its present financial problems that once again necessitated an IMF bailout so the so-called “lesser evil” was to risk America’s wrath than to have the economy collapse in that scenario. About that possible consequence, the US probably approved this decision in advance for the aforesaid reason aimed at preventing further turmoil in its newly restored partial proxy or at least didn’t object when presumably briefed about it.

It's unimaginable that The Establishment would have gone behind their patron’s back when it’s dependent on them to keep their anti-democratic crackdown and nine-month-long de facto state of marital law out of the global headlines. These powerful military and intelligence figures know very well that the US could easily turn Western opinion against them with the snap of its fingers, with all that might entail for targeted sanctions against them and their assets, hence why they wouldn’t dare risk it.

At the same time, however, Gwadar is the terminal port of the Belt & Road Initiative’s (BRI) CPEC flagship so the successful completion of this pipeline at least in part up until that town would amount to Iran fueling the development of that Chinese project that’s intended to mitigate the effects of a US blockade. CPEC avoids the easily blockaded Strait of Malacca by directly connecting China to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan so it’s understandably in the US’ hegemonic interests to obstruct its completion.

Nevertheless, American policymakers might have calculated that it’s better to let Iran fuel the development of this Chinese project in their newly restored partial proxy than to risk its economic collapse if it’s fined the expected $18 billion by the International Arbitration Court for breach of contract. CPEC could remain manageable in that event upon the US leveraging its agents of influence in The Establishment to keep it in check with the threat of targeted sanctions if they’re derelict in this “duty”.

The most influential among them got their hands dirty in the time since April 2022’s post-modern coup against former multipolar Prime Minister Imran Khan, including the bloody crackdown rife with human rights abuses, particularly against political activists and independent journalists. They can therefore easily be blackmailed to stay in line and do what’s demanded of them by the US. For this reason, nobody should get their hopes up that this pipeline decision heralds a return to multipolar policies by Pakistan.