It’s Kiev’s GUR, Not Russia’s FSB, That’s Likely Plotting To Assassinate Prigozhin

Neither this news item nor related ones from earlier this week were shared with the public for innocent reasons related to informing the Russian leader of domestic threats, after which he can take action to thwart them, but for the purpose of manipulating their audience’s perceptions of him and his government.

Head of Ukraine’s GUR military-intelligence service Kiril Budanov claimed that his spies are aware of the FSB’s alleged plot to assassinate exiled Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin after his failed coup. This doesn’t make any sense, however, since President Putin could have already taken him out if he truly wanted to instead of mercifully give him a final chance to save his life like he ultimately did. That decision averted civil war and prevented him from becoming a martyr around which domestic extremists could rally.

Furthermore, “Exiling Prigozhin & His Collaborators To Belarus Serves Russian Interests” in more ways than just that since it already prompted panic from neighboring NATO states and could also help defend this host nation from that bloc’s impending provocations that President Lukashenko warned about. For these reasons, it makes perfect sense for the GUR to plot Prigozhin’s assassination, not to mention attempting to pin the blame on the FSB afterwards.

That could rekindle civil war fears inside Russia, turn Prigozhin into a martyr around which domestic extremists could rally, remove what NATO is convinced could turn into a threat on their borders, weaken Belarus’ ability to defend from that bloc’s aggression, and provoke problems between it and Russia. That last-mentioned outcome is possible if some in Belarus fall for this false flag into thinking that the FSB flagrantly violated their country’s sovereignty to kill its president’s guest exactly as Budanov predicted.  

To be clear, the likelihood of the Union State’s two pillars feuding with one another in the aftermath of Prigozhin’s hypothetical assassination is close to nil but that doesn’t mean that the GUR still won’t try to kill the Wagner chief. The other objectives that could be advanced by doing so, especially with regards to turning their target into a martyr and weakening Belarus’ ability to defend itself from NATO aggression, are more than enough motivation for Ukraine’s military-intelligence service to try its best.

Budanov’s insincere warning that the FSB is allegedly plotting to assassinate Prigozhin is meant to meddle in Russia’s most sensitive domestic political affairs exactly as the earlier reports about Army General Sergey Surovikin’s arrest sought to do. The same goes for exiled Ukrainian-funded oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s and former US Vice President Mike Pence’s suggestions that President Putin needs to purge his armed forces in order to prevent another coup.

None of these four news items were shared with the public for innocent reasons related to informing the Russian leader of domestic threats, after which he can take action to thwart them, but for the purpose of manipulating their audience’s perceptions of him and his government. Those who fell for any of these information warfare provocations would be under the impression that another coup attempt is possible and that the FSB is making a fool out of President Putin after he gave his word not to harm Prigozhin.

There’s no truth to the preceding claims, which represent the latest phase of the West’s Hybrid War on Russia that’s marked by this de facto New Cold War bloc actively meddling in Russia’s most sensitive domestic political affairs, and there’s little chance that they’ll succeed in any case. Nevertheless, it’s important for the public to be aware of this so that they don’t get misled by these provocations and thus gradually end up divorced from reality if they take for granted these lies and all that they imply.