Russia Probably Didn’t Deliberately Target The Cabinet Of Ministers Building In Kiev

It’s difficult to imagine typically cautious and restrained Putin losing his cool and recklessly giving European warmongers exactly what they need for raising the chances that they can manipulate the US into posing an even greater threat to Russia’s security interests.

Ukraine accused Russia of deliberately targeting the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kiev during large-scale strikes across the country on Sunday, which Russia denied, while RT cited earlier Ukrainian reports to suggest that the damage was actually caused by debris from a downed drone. While some of Russia’s supporters in the conflict might scoff at that theory due to them hoping that Putin finally authorized strikes against Ukrainian government targets, that’s probably not what happened as will be explained.

After all, he didn’t authorize any symmetrical retaliation back in May 2023 after a Ukrainian drone hit the Kremlin, thus confirming his reluctance to climb the escalation ladder. The only notable exceptions over the past 3,5 years were the special operation itself and then last November’s use of the Oreshniks in response to the West allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles inside of Russia. To randomly authorize a drone strike against a Ukrainian government building would therefore be out of character.

Not only that, but Putin would risk provoking Trump at precisely the moment when he’s under enormous pressure from Europe to escalate American involvement in the conflict or at least in the post-conflict future via the provisioning of robust security guarantees, including possible support for a no-fly zone. This weekend’s incident can be exploited by Russia’s adversaries to craft the narrative that Putin was supposedly the first to escalate, and amidst talks with Trump no less, in advance of their aforesaid goals.

It’s difficult to imagine typically cautious and restrained Putin losing his cool and recklessly giving European warmongers exactly what they need for raising the chances that they can manipulate the US into posing an even greater threat to Russia’s security interests. Given the military-political consequences of Russia deliberately striking Ukrainian government targets, it would make sense for him to authorize an all-out campaign if he wanted to risk all of that, not a one-off strike.

For these reasons, RT’s theory that debris from a downed drone was responsible for the damage to Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building is the most realistic explanation of what happened, not Kiev’s version which aligns with the wishful thinking fantasies of some of Russia’s supporters. Regardless of one’s opinion about the wisdom of this policy, the fact is that Putin thus far hasn’t authorized any strikes against Ukrainian government targets, and he’s unlikely to reverse course this late into the conflict.

Observers can only speculate on his motives. Some might posit that he truly believes what he wrote in his July 2021 magnum opus “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, for better or for worse depending on one’s perspective, and therefore doesn’t want to do anything that could throw Ukraine into chaos and make life even harder for its fraternal people. Others, however, might claim that he fears provoking the West into initiating an uncontrollable escalation cycle or he reached some deal with them.

Whatever one’s beliefs might be, it’s indisputable that Putin has hitherto never authorized anything that even remotely conforms with what the West, Ukraine, and even some of Russia’s own supporters expected him to do (each for their own reasons and with different value judgements about it). Accordingly, the narrative that he suddenly gave the greenlight for a one-off strike on a Ukrainian government target is likely an infowar provocation for manipulating Trump into more mission creep.