I don’t agree on this statement, your analyze is incorrect, what about all the resistance hits all US interests in the Gulf ? What will happen in this scenario ?
Secondly who tells you that Iran doesn’t have the nuclear missiles ready ?
Third de facto Russia has to enter the war as a strategic ally.
Fourth there is no Silk Road if Iran is in the US giron.
1. The US could take the worst blow that the Resistance could give it and still survive. The global economy would likely collapse afterwards, but the US would be in a strong position to rebuild it, or at least protect its interests and become a powerful pole in the next world order. In response, it could nuke Iran and its allies depending on how much damage they deal to it.
2. No serious expert or official believes that Iran already has a nuclear weapon. Notice how differently the US treats Russia/North Korea from Iran, that's because the first two have nukes while the second doesn't. I'm aware of all the sensational reporting over the past few weeks about alleged Iranian nuclear tests but I don't think that it actually tested one.
3. You're the one being subjective now by assuming that Russia will react based on your wishful thinking expectations. What I've learned in my decade of work here in Moscow is that most of what Russia's foreign supporters think are its interests and what it "must" do rarely aligns with what policymakers here believe. In some cases, it's the exact opposite.
4. Russia isn't part of the Silk Road, but it does have a corridor through Iran to India. Even so, that doesn't mean that Russia is going to go to war in support of Iran and risk a nuclear exchange with the US and/or Israel. I don't want to change your mind though, in fact, nowadays I want people like you to be disappointed and then reflect on what you got wrong.
The thing is Andrew is China! If a push comes to a shove (A British phrase) then Russia would fight and so would China! President Putin is a brilliant Pragmatist but like in Ukraine I don't think he will have a choice if it happens! Just like Ukraine. China has interests in Iran and will defend them aggressively if the need be! So will Russia!
You can continue imagining that, but you're going to be deeply disappointed when it doesn't happen. China has no international force projection capability that's able to compete with the US or Israel in West Asia, and it won't nuke them either.
I'm not interested in arguing with you though, but I'll leave you with something to think about. Your worldview totally ignores the fact that Russia arms India to the teeth against China. That's the big hole in your theory. Think about it. Cheers.
China and India, however, are both in BRICS which many countries wish to join. The world is tired of the unipolar, world order of the West and are going to dump it very soon and live harmoniously, respectfully and cooperatively with each other. That's the plan, a uni-polar world economy.
1. If anyone wants to get a realistic take on the US, listen to Sergey Lavrov's speech to the UN general assembly on Sept. 27 (on YouTube). He is the world's best/only diplomat.
2. Scott Ritter says Iran can have a (or 3) nuclear warheads in 3 days. Ritter is the foremost expert on all aspects military.
3. Zelensky/Ukraine, most corrupt in Europe, should be given no help (as Israel should not). Those $billions are getting Ukraine slaughtered. We all almost died Sept.14 had that idiot gone deep into Russia. Putin doesn't lie and he doesn't bluff, as the US warharks assume, just because our president's always lie..
4. After the Oct. 22-24 BRICS meeting in Kazan Russia, the US and its sycophants will lose the ability to control the Global South, its money (no more sanctions' effects), its resources, its leadership; well, anything outside NATO countries in the Global North.
5. Israel will not last through this decade, happy to say.
AFAIK, China has already begun to fold even before a push comes to a shove. Not only that, I think either China had officially notified Russia about its change of sails or Russia has figured that out already (hence Putin's visit to all China's neighbors.) China could barely win in the Taiwan Strait, and no chance to win in South China Sea.
I disagree with that. If a push becomes a shove then China will obliterate Taiwan after heavy losses! However I do not see Taiwan and China going to war albeit a lot of sabre rattling. I think that something will happen with Pakistan of Afghanistan first. If China chooses the right equipment for the theatre of war then China should win. It has hypersonics and nukes after all!
China will not, nor does it want to, "obliterate Taiwan," because BOTH are China. They also have extensive trade between them. Suggest you read history.
China can easily beat Taiwan and occupy Taiwan, or even loot Taiwan clean. But that does not solve the strategic problems China face with the Americans. By taking Taiwan militarily, China has basically doomed itself strategically. Taiwan is but a small piece of the puzzle and USA is already seriously working on the scenario of losing Taiwan by trying to transplant TSMC to USA. However, that would not work either as the secret sauce of TSMC is its work force. But the larger issues are elsewhere and perhaps even more difficult to solve than Taiwan's existence. In the short term, a compromise is good for both China and USA. For the longer term, it is better that USA and China have no interaction, that would also be good for both sides. The center of the conflict is that #1 USA wants to make sure #2 China fall behind much further. And China would not agree. Taiwan or not Taiwan is really peanuts in the larger confrontation.
Item #3 is critical. Personally, I think Mr. Putin is a great leader because he puts Russia first. I do hope that he would lead Russia to do more for the rest of the world some other days. But given the circumstances, I think Russian people have done quite a lot for the world already. People who wait for salvation usually are not worthy of salvation. It is people who fight for their own interests that are worth salvation. This is also an inherent strength inside Israel. No matter how much one dislikes Israel or thinks Israel has the wrong policies, So far Israel has continued to fight for its existence. I think that also explains why Ukraine has lasted this long: western aid is critical, but there is a ultra nationalists force in sufficient numbers in Ukraine is even more critical. Russia's "strategy change", if I may say so, is a sign of grasping how strong the hold is by the ultra nationalists in Ukraine. Hence the chief intelligence officials at the time of SMO start had to be sacked.
Russia entering the war doesn’t mean Russia will fight, but Russia will give all support to its own interests, if Iran looses the war be sure that Russia is out of the ME for ever. Every country has its own interests i fully agree with you. Russia soon will be signing strategic agreements with Iran on Military and Economic matters, isn’t it ? What that it means on your opinion.
I am just arguing with you doesn’t mean that is don’t respect your work, i read what ever you write every single day and have full respects on your statements that are made with a lot of objectivity. All my respect Sir.
There's probably truth in what you say about the Russians showing restraint (ie. not using U.S. "shock and awe" tactics) to avoid provoking a panicked response by NATO, but I think it goes deeper. Russia didn't seek this war and certainly did not want any war with a people they consider brothers. Slaughtering Ukrainians on the battlefield pleases no one. The U.S. looks at the world differently. They have no "brothers." They are Americans, and everyone else is merely inferior. So kill 'em all and let god sort 'em out, as the U.S. Marines like to say.
I hope you're right Andrew but unfortunately I see otherwise. You clearly underestimate China and it has vital interests in Iran. Belt and Road initiative for example. India has it's own problems such as Kashmir and Pakistan! Expect another big confrontation involving Pakistan very soon! China and India may have to put their differences aside as things in that region are simmering up as well! The US is now a clear and present danger to China as well as Russia and the Middle East! I know someone who is from Afghanistan and talks a lot about ISIS (please refer to them as Daeesh) are wreaking havoc there and the Taliban is very vulnerable. There are Chinese ships already in the Red Sea and more are coming. I must also remind you for when Obama was in power, Iran blocked the straits of Hormuz and the Chinese helped. Iran would have been attacked if they did this alone and the US would have easily achieved their military objectives. Only Chinese involvement stopped this. In conclusion Andrew, Iran is in a better position than you think! Also do not discount Turkey as they may become involved too. My Muslim Brothers and Sisters are being slaughtered and Turkey's patience is about to snap!
The thing is (If the CIA do their homework) is that Russia and China are bringing in assets to defend Iran and it will be just as problematic if not more so! The Neocon Psychopaths are very likely to miscalculate and that will be devastating for humanity!
The best source of analysis for me Andrew, is Scott Ritter and he says Israel has signed its own death warrant. The wars on Gaza and Lebanon cannot be won by Israel which is suffering deep economic damage as well as blood and guts. This is a typical Vietnam scenario IMHO:
Thanks, but Scott is -- in my respectful opinion -- very emotionally invested in this conflict and I therefore don't believe that he analyzes it all that clearly. I've read countless predictions about Israel's supposedly imminent demise over the past decade, and while some make pretty compelling points, none of that has yet to pass.
In any case, my point in this piece is to briefly answer the question of why the US will shoot down Iranian missiles -- even going as far as to deploy its troops and one of its rare THAADs to Israel -- but won't shoot down Russian missiles. Anyone can believe whatever they want about Israel's future, but I'm talking about the here and now, and there's a difference in these policies.
See, that's the problem, most in Alt-Media will blindly believe whatever they read on the internet as long as it conforms with their wishful thinking expectations. I say this without any sarcasm: those like you need to keep believing and then become deeply disappointed in order to learn your lesson. Alt-Media won't change until that happens:
"The US, Russia, etc., it’s only Israel that’s insisted throughout the years that Iran is on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon, yet that was widely lambasted by Alt-Media till they flipped the script a few weeks back. You’re welcome to believe whatever you want though, I don’t care about changing your mind, but notice how differently the US treats Russia/North Korea from Iran. That’s because the first two have nukes and the second doesn’t."
Yes, it was, because it simply cites social media speculation. Nobody serious, meaning foreign officials and respected academics, lent any credence to that.
You read what you wanted to believe, therefore you believed it, and now you're convinced that Iran secretly has a nuclear weapon.
If that was really true though, then why isn't the US scared of an uncontrollable escalation sequence with Iran like it's scared of one with Russia?
Why would US officials tell Politico that those two's different nuclear statuses is responsible for why it'll shoot down one's missiles but not the other's?
How do you cogently account for these double standards if both are supposedly nuclear-armed powers that can destroy the US?
I don’t agree on this statement, your analyze is incorrect, what about all the resistance hits all US interests in the Gulf ? What will happen in this scenario ?
Secondly who tells you that Iran doesn’t have the nuclear missiles ready ?
Third de facto Russia has to enter the war as a strategic ally.
Fourth there is no Silk Road if Iran is in the US giron.
Your analyze is out of any objectivity.
1. The US could take the worst blow that the Resistance could give it and still survive. The global economy would likely collapse afterwards, but the US would be in a strong position to rebuild it, or at least protect its interests and become a powerful pole in the next world order. In response, it could nuke Iran and its allies depending on how much damage they deal to it.
2. No serious expert or official believes that Iran already has a nuclear weapon. Notice how differently the US treats Russia/North Korea from Iran, that's because the first two have nukes while the second doesn't. I'm aware of all the sensational reporting over the past few weeks about alleged Iranian nuclear tests but I don't think that it actually tested one.
3. You're the one being subjective now by assuming that Russia will react based on your wishful thinking expectations. What I've learned in my decade of work here in Moscow is that most of what Russia's foreign supporters think are its interests and what it "must" do rarely aligns with what policymakers here believe. In some cases, it's the exact opposite.
4. Russia isn't part of the Silk Road, but it does have a corridor through Iran to India. Even so, that doesn't mean that Russia is going to go to war in support of Iran and risk a nuclear exchange with the US and/or Israel. I don't want to change your mind though, in fact, nowadays I want people like you to be disappointed and then reflect on what you got wrong.
The thing is Andrew is China! If a push comes to a shove (A British phrase) then Russia would fight and so would China! President Putin is a brilliant Pragmatist but like in Ukraine I don't think he will have a choice if it happens! Just like Ukraine. China has interests in Iran and will defend them aggressively if the need be! So will Russia!
You can continue imagining that, but you're going to be deeply disappointed when it doesn't happen. China has no international force projection capability that's able to compete with the US or Israel in West Asia, and it won't nuke them either.
I'm not interested in arguing with you though, but I'll leave you with something to think about. Your worldview totally ignores the fact that Russia arms India to the teeth against China. That's the big hole in your theory. Think about it. Cheers.
China and India, however, are both in BRICS which many countries wish to join. The world is tired of the unipolar, world order of the West and are going to dump it very soon and live harmoniously, respectfully and cooperatively with each other. That's the plan, a uni-polar world economy.
1. If anyone wants to get a realistic take on the US, listen to Sergey Lavrov's speech to the UN general assembly on Sept. 27 (on YouTube). He is the world's best/only diplomat.
2. Scott Ritter says Iran can have a (or 3) nuclear warheads in 3 days. Ritter is the foremost expert on all aspects military.
3. Zelensky/Ukraine, most corrupt in Europe, should be given no help (as Israel should not). Those $billions are getting Ukraine slaughtered. We all almost died Sept.14 had that idiot gone deep into Russia. Putin doesn't lie and he doesn't bluff, as the US warharks assume, just because our president's always lie..
4. After the Oct. 22-24 BRICS meeting in Kazan Russia, the US and its sycophants will lose the ability to control the Global South, its money (no more sanctions' effects), its resources, its leadership; well, anything outside NATO countries in the Global North.
5. Israel will not last through this decade, happy to say.
I'm not so sure about that! Whatever we say about Israel they are like cockroaches i.e. tough as old boots!
AFAIK, China has already begun to fold even before a push comes to a shove. Not only that, I think either China had officially notified Russia about its change of sails or Russia has figured that out already (hence Putin's visit to all China's neighbors.) China could barely win in the Taiwan Strait, and no chance to win in South China Sea.
I disagree with that. If a push becomes a shove then China will obliterate Taiwan after heavy losses! However I do not see Taiwan and China going to war albeit a lot of sabre rattling. I think that something will happen with Pakistan of Afghanistan first. If China chooses the right equipment for the theatre of war then China should win. It has hypersonics and nukes after all!
China will not, nor does it want to, "obliterate Taiwan," because BOTH are China. They also have extensive trade between them. Suggest you read history.
China can easily beat Taiwan and occupy Taiwan, or even loot Taiwan clean. But that does not solve the strategic problems China face with the Americans. By taking Taiwan militarily, China has basically doomed itself strategically. Taiwan is but a small piece of the puzzle and USA is already seriously working on the scenario of losing Taiwan by trying to transplant TSMC to USA. However, that would not work either as the secret sauce of TSMC is its work force. But the larger issues are elsewhere and perhaps even more difficult to solve than Taiwan's existence. In the short term, a compromise is good for both China and USA. For the longer term, it is better that USA and China have no interaction, that would also be good for both sides. The center of the conflict is that #1 USA wants to make sure #2 China fall behind much further. And China would not agree. Taiwan or not Taiwan is really peanuts in the larger confrontation.
Item #3 is critical. Personally, I think Mr. Putin is a great leader because he puts Russia first. I do hope that he would lead Russia to do more for the rest of the world some other days. But given the circumstances, I think Russian people have done quite a lot for the world already. People who wait for salvation usually are not worthy of salvation. It is people who fight for their own interests that are worth salvation. This is also an inherent strength inside Israel. No matter how much one dislikes Israel or thinks Israel has the wrong policies, So far Israel has continued to fight for its existence. I think that also explains why Ukraine has lasted this long: western aid is critical, but there is a ultra nationalists force in sufficient numbers in Ukraine is even more critical. Russia's "strategy change", if I may say so, is a sign of grasping how strong the hold is by the ultra nationalists in Ukraine. Hence the chief intelligence officials at the time of SMO start had to be sacked.
Russia entering the war doesn’t mean Russia will fight, but Russia will give all support to its own interests, if Iran looses the war be sure that Russia is out of the ME for ever. Every country has its own interests i fully agree with you. Russia soon will be signing strategic agreements with Iran on Military and Economic matters, isn’t it ? What that it means on your opinion.
I am just arguing with you doesn’t mean that is don’t respect your work, i read what ever you write every single day and have full respects on your statements that are made with a lot of objectivity. All my respect Sir.
Ok, thanks, I appreciate you reading my work.
There's probably truth in what you say about the Russians showing restraint (ie. not using U.S. "shock and awe" tactics) to avoid provoking a panicked response by NATO, but I think it goes deeper. Russia didn't seek this war and certainly did not want any war with a people they consider brothers. Slaughtering Ukrainians on the battlefield pleases no one. The U.S. looks at the world differently. They have no "brothers." They are Americans, and everyone else is merely inferior. So kill 'em all and let god sort 'em out, as the U.S. Marines like to say.
Always appreciate your articles, Mr. Korybko.
I hope you're right Andrew but unfortunately I see otherwise. You clearly underestimate China and it has vital interests in Iran. Belt and Road initiative for example. India has it's own problems such as Kashmir and Pakistan! Expect another big confrontation involving Pakistan very soon! China and India may have to put their differences aside as things in that region are simmering up as well! The US is now a clear and present danger to China as well as Russia and the Middle East! I know someone who is from Afghanistan and talks a lot about ISIS (please refer to them as Daeesh) are wreaking havoc there and the Taliban is very vulnerable. There are Chinese ships already in the Red Sea and more are coming. I must also remind you for when Obama was in power, Iran blocked the straits of Hormuz and the Chinese helped. Iran would have been attacked if they did this alone and the US would have easily achieved their military objectives. Only Chinese involvement stopped this. In conclusion Andrew, Iran is in a better position than you think! Also do not discount Turkey as they may become involved too. My Muslim Brothers and Sisters are being slaughtered and Turkey's patience is about to snap!
The thing is (If the CIA do their homework) is that Russia and China are bringing in assets to defend Iran and it will be just as problematic if not more so! The Neocon Psychopaths are very likely to miscalculate and that will be devastating for humanity!
The best source of analysis for me Andrew, is Scott Ritter and he says Israel has signed its own death warrant. The wars on Gaza and Lebanon cannot be won by Israel which is suffering deep economic damage as well as blood and guts. This is a typical Vietnam scenario IMHO:
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/10/08/scott-ritter-the-fall-of-israel/
This is a long video but the first 15 minutes are most revealing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH-MokxEzOk
I always respect your work - we can't be right every time!
Best
AP
Thanks, but Scott is -- in my respectful opinion -- very emotionally invested in this conflict and I therefore don't believe that he analyzes it all that clearly. I've read countless predictions about Israel's supposedly imminent demise over the past decade, and while some make pretty compelling points, none of that has yet to pass.
In any case, my point in this piece is to briefly answer the question of why the US will shoot down Iranian missiles -- even going as far as to deploy its troops and one of its rare THAADs to Israel -- but won't shoot down Russian missiles. Anyone can believe whatever they want about Israel's future, but I'm talking about the here and now, and there's a difference in these policies.
Who says it's 'non-nuclear'?
https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/09/social-media-abuzz-with-claims-of-irans-secret-nuclear-test-after-44-magnitude-earthquake
See, that's the problem, most in Alt-Media will blindly believe whatever they read on the internet as long as it conforms with their wishful thinking expectations. I say this without any sarcasm: those like you need to keep believing and then become deeply disappointed in order to learn your lesson. Alt-Media won't change until that happens:
"The US, Russia, etc., it’s only Israel that’s insisted throughout the years that Iran is on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon, yet that was widely lambasted by Alt-Media till they flipped the script a few weeks back. You’re welcome to believe whatever you want though, I don’t care about changing your mind, but notice how differently the US treats Russia/North Korea from Iran. That’s because the first two have nukes and the second doesn’t."
My comment was on-topic
??
Yes, it was, because it simply cites social media speculation. Nobody serious, meaning foreign officials and respected academics, lent any credence to that.
You read what you wanted to believe, therefore you believed it, and now you're convinced that Iran secretly has a nuclear weapon.
If that was really true though, then why isn't the US scared of an uncontrollable escalation sequence with Iran like it's scared of one with Russia?
Why would US officials tell Politico that those two's different nuclear statuses is responsible for why it'll shoot down one's missiles but not the other's?
How do you cogently account for these double standards if both are supposedly nuclear-armed powers that can destroy the US?
I don't necessarily believe it