What’s Standing In The Way Of A Grand Compromise On Ukraine?
The onus is now on Zelensky to reciprocate Putin’s widely perceived willingness to compromise for peace.
Putin and Trump publicly confirmed that they found a lot of common ground during their three-hour-long talks in Anchorage, but no grand compromise on Ukraine was reached due to “a couple of big [points]…One is probably the most significant” that remain unresolved according to Trump. Putin’s reaffirmation of the need to “eliminate the primary causes of the conflict” and Trump mentioning how Zelensky will “have to agree” with what the US achieved so far strongly hints at what these could be.
As a reminder, Russia’s official goals in the conflict are to: demilitarize Ukraine; denazify it; restore the country’s constitutional neutrality; and obtain recognition of the on-the-ground reality. Putin suggested that he’s become more flexible as of late, which was likely responsible at least in part for why he and Trump just met as well as for Trump’s positive assessment of their talks, so he could hypothetically compromise on one, some, or all of these goals. This places the onus on Zelensky to reciprocate.
In the order that Putin’s goals were mentioned, Trump therefore likely expects Zelensky to either agree to: curtail the size of his armed forces after the conflict ends; get the Rada to criminalize the glorification of WWII-era Ukrainian Nazi collaborators and/or rescind anti-Russian legislation; have them remove the 2019 constitutional amendment about seeking NATO membership; and/or amend the constitution to more easily cede land without first having to hold a successful All-Ukrainian referendum on this issue.
Trump also said that he’ll “call up NATO”, likely referring to the leaders of key NATO countries, who he seemingly expects to facilitate a grand compromise by correspondingly: agreeing not to deploy troops to Ukraine and/or agreeing to curtail arms exports to it; “creatively encouraging” the Rada to pass the aforesaid socio-political, neutrality, and/or territorial cession reforms (e.g. threatening to curtail aid if they don’t); and/or explicitly declaring that they’ll no longer approve Ukraine’s NATO membership bid.
They might not do so willing, however, so it’s possible that Trump could: greatly reduce or even abandon the scale of mid-July’s scheme to sell new US arms to NATO for passing along to Ukraine; threaten to cut off all military ties with any country that deploys troops to Ukraine; threaten to impose more tariffs on countries that don’t “creatively encourage” the Rada to pass the aforesaid reforms; and/or threaten to reduce the US’ role in NATO if members don’t explicitly declare their opposition to Ukraine joining.
If Trump and his NATO subordinates convince Zelensky to agree to some of these compromises, then Putin might agree to: Ukraine retaining a larger military than what was agreed to in spring 2022’s draft peace treaty; not pursue full-fledged denazification (e.g. tacitly accepting that traces of this ideology will remain in Ukrainian society); not object to Ukraine’s limited bilateral cooperation with NATO members; and/or indefinitely freeze Russia’s territorial claims (i.e. still retain but not actively pursue them).
This pathway towards a grand compromise could be derailed by: a Ukrainian false-flag provocation against civilians that turns Trump against Russia; a false-flag provocation elsewhere like in the Baltic Sea to the same end; and/or any serious expansion of Russia’s ground campaign beyond the disputed regions. Trump might not be misled by any false flags while Putin might limit the scope of the special operation as a “goodwill gesture”, however, so peace is possible if Zelensky finally agrees to compromise.
Trump is still ignoring the root causes. He won't even say those words. He can't say those words because he's responsible for those root causes.
Trump tries to play like he would've done thing differently had he been in office before the war started but he can't prove that because its a hypothetical claim.
The truth is that he was voted into office and he had a chance from day one of his first administration to change policy on Ukraine but he didn't. He sent javelin missles and money instead.
He never uttered one word about there being too many young Ukrainian men dying or even a word of remorse over the deaths of the people of the Donbass. Even now he's content to sell arms to the Europeans so that they can use those arms to kill Russians. If he was truly troubled by all the killing he wouldn't sell the arms or give logistical support. He should have stopped support to Ukraine on day one of his second presidency.
If he had stopped all support then it wouldn't be his war, it would be Biden's war but he didn't. Trump made it his war.
A leader who can't tell the truth about his own culpability is a leader who shouldn't be trusted. Putin is wrong to trust Trump.
Just look at the people Trump brought to the Summit. Everyone he brought was a Russophobe, Neocon. Look at how he started off the welcoming ceremony with a flyover of weapons of war as a show of strength for a meeting that is titled, Pursuing Peace. That flyover was tone deaf.
The U.S. is tone deaf about its own conduct. America is always playing the role of the victim. Nothing is ever its fault. Even that strip of Armenian land that the U.S. wants to lease for 99 years is misnamed the Peace and Prosperity Corridor. That land is nothing of the sort.
It's a military base from which the U.S. intends to disrupt the Belt and Road initiative and to attack Iran and contain Russia. It will probably become a NATO base at some point.
Trump urgently calls for a peace summit but also lays the ground for war in a part of the world where it has no business being.
Putin needs to have as little to do with Trump as is possible. There should definitely be no commercial joint ventures with the Americans because they are not reliable partners. They will cripple Russia when they find it useful to do so. Economic blackmail is a big weapon of U.S. soft power.
Well, Putin does have ‘previous’ as someone willing to trust (incredibly) and compromise with the west. We will see if he has shaken off that bad habit. It seems to me that Russia has brought itself to a position of great strength vis a vis the west; it would be a terrible shame to waste that, in a shabby compromise that does not fully achieve all the goals of the SMO. Such a compromise would also likely weaken Russia internally, and take the shine off the high regard in which Russia is held throughout the global majority.